Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
